It is already time to have a serious conversation about relegation this year. The bottom three teams will head down to the Championship and their fate may already be decided. With a historically atrocious start to their season, Sheffield United’s fate is already sealed barring a flood of miracles. West Brom will have to put together something special in the coming months to have a chance of sniffing the safe zone. Fulham, on the other hand, Scott Parker’s ever more feisty side, may just be able to do it. If they did, it would be at the expense of Brighton or Newcastle’s aspirations to stay up. Of the three which team is most likely to go down? I say Newcastle. 

Let’s begin with their recent form in the Premier League. They are winless in their last nine matches with their last three points coming from West Brom on December 12th. Since then, they have conceded 19 goals and scored 4. Three of those goals were scored against Leeds who have been abysmal on the defensive side of the ball. Let is also be said that in this run of poopy play Newcastle gave winless Sheffield United their one and very possible their only win of the season.  I am not going to tell you that Brighton or Fulham have stats that will knock your socks off, but they aren’t this bad. In fact, Fulham is trending upwards.

Draws are not wins, but they aren’t losses either. Where Newcastle has lost, Fulham has drawn. Fulham is winless in their last eight, but in that run of games is a draw to Brighton, Tottenham, Southampton, Newcastle, and Liverpool. Now it is not likely that Fulham will win a great number of games in this second half, but they will make teams work for results. Teams like  Wolves, Leeds, Crystal Palace, West Ham, and Everton who won by one goal are likely to find a greater challenge. In fact, Fulham has only lost by more than one goal three times this season to Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Manchester City. They are here to stay and for Newcastle, that means it’s time to go. 

Now Allan Saint-Maximin has just signed a contract with Newcastle that keeps him there until 2026. He is not a Championship player and I would go as far as to call him a potential star if he can stay healthy. Relegation would be a shame for his future, but when you are a team whose biggest signings are two players jumping ship from a sinking team in Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraiser from Bournemouth, what do you expect to happen? Questions about Steve Bruce are more real than they have been before with him reaching his 200th career loss today against Leeds. With another failed attempt to change the ownership over the summer framing all of this, it just doesn’t seem like the team will be able to pull it together. 

The bottom five on May 24th: 

20. Sheffield United

19. West Brom 

18. Newcastle

17. Fulham 

16. Brighton